Whether admired or criticized, Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House is now a tangible possibility. His policies could significantly impact maritime transport, aligning with his broader economic agenda to “Make America Great Again.” But what would this mean for the shipping industry, and how might Trump leverage it to fulfill his campaign promises?
At the core of Trump’s vision is economic revival—prioritizing American jobs and businesses over the benefits of global trade for consumers. His skepticism toward agreements like NAFTA and TTIP, coupled with his advocacy for tariffs, reflects a strategy to protect domestic industries. This approach directly ties into maritime transport, a backbone of global trade.
The current model of global value chains thrives on ultra-low shipping costs, enabled by efficiency and subsidies. While Chinese and Korean taxpayers fund parts of these subsidies, Americans bear a significant burden, particularly in port infrastructure. Despite being the world’s leading economy, the U.S. ranks only eighth in shipping, leaving it dependent on foreign-dominated maritime networks.
Two key issues highlight this imbalance. First, the rise of mega-ships: these vessels demand costly port upgrades—deeper channels, higher bridges, and reinforced quays—yet offer little benefit to U.S. businesses or consumers. Second, the push for faster port operations pressures terminals to automate, risking job losses in an already sluggish economy.
Given these challenges, how might a Trump administration address maritime transport while pursuing job creation and economic sovereignty? Here are four potential strategies:
1. Curbing Shipping Industry Dominance
Trump could empower the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) to take a harder stance against shipping alliances, potentially breaking up conglomerates. The U.S. is uniquely positioned to act, as the EU and China prioritize their own shipping giants.
2. Shifting Infrastructure Costs to Shippers
The Harbor Maintenance Fee (HMF) could be reformed to reflect actual port costs. For instance, vessels with deeper drafts or higher emissions might pay more, ensuring shipping companies bear a fair share of maintenance expenses.
3. Raising the Cost of Maritime Trade
Instead of outright trade wars, Trump might target shipping itself—for example, by imposing a carbon price. While he dismisses climate concerns, such a move could indirectly curb outsourcing while passing the burden to foreign operators.
4. Reforming the Jones Act
The Jones Act protects U.S. shipbuilding and crewing jobs but inflates costs and stifles competitiveness. A revised policy could bolster America’s shipping industry, aligning with Trump’s ambition to reclaim global maritime leadership.
In summary, a Trump presidency could disrupt maritime transport through stricter regulations, cost reallocation, and strategic reforms—all in service of his overarching goal: putting America first.